Troubleshooting - Polymarket Bot

Connection Issues

WebSocket Disconnects

[OFF] status in header

Symptom: Connection status shows [OFF] in redCause:

Chainlink WebSocket disconnected
Network connectivity issue
Polymarket API downtime

Solution:

Check network

ping ws-live-data.polymarket.com

Restart bot

The bot has auto-reconnect logic, but manual restart helps:

# Stop with Ctrl+C
pnpm start

Check logs

Look for WebSocket errors:

cat data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | grep "WebSocket"

Prevention: WebSocket client in src/feeds/chainlink.js:25 has built-in reconnection. If reconnects fail repeatedly, check your firewall settings.

[POLY OFF] in market line

Symptom: Polymarket status shows [POLY OFF] in redCause:

Polymarket CLOB API unavailable
Rate limiting
Market not active yet

Solution:

Check market availability:

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?active=true&closed=false" | jq .

Verify CLOB API:

curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/price?token_id={token}" | jq .

Check rate limits:
- Polymarket CLOB: 10 requests/second
- Gamma API: 100 requests/minute
- Bot implements backoff in src/feeds/polymarket.js:45

Note: Bot continues running without Polymarket data - predictions work, but no EV/edge calculations.

Missing Strike Price

Strike shows '--'

Symptom: Header shows Strike: --Cause:

Vatic Trading API unavailable
Interval timestamp not found in API
API key issues (if required)

Solution:

Test Vatic API manually:

TIMESTAMP=$(date -u +%s)
curl -s "https://api.vatic.trading/api/v1/targets/${TIMESTAMP}" | jq .

Check timestamp alignment: Vatic uses Unix timestamps rounded to 5-minute intervals:

// Should be multiple of 300 (5 minutes)
const intervalEpoch = Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000 / 300) * 300

Fallback mode: Bot can run without strike price in simulation mode (no trading decisions).

Prediction Issues

Constant Abstention

ABSTENCION every interval

Symptom: Bot never places bets, always shows ABSTENCIONCommon reasons:

Reason	Fix
`insufficient_data`	Wait for 50+ ticks (2-3 minutes). Check WebSocket is connected.
`dead_zone`	Market is balanced near 50%. Normal behavior. Wait for clearer signal.
`insufficient_margin`	Lower threshold in config: `abstention.minMargin` (default 0.15)
`insufficient_ev`	Lower threshold: `abstention.minEV` (default 0.05)
`cold_streak`	Accuracy dropped <40%. Model is self-protecting. Wait for recovery.
`drawdown_suspension`	Bankroll in RED/CRITICAL. Reduce risk or wait for recovery.
`anomalous_volatility`	High volatility period. Normal safety mechanism.

To debug:

# Check abstention reasons in logs
cat data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | jq 'select(.abstention != null) | .abstention.reason' | sort | uniq -c

Adjust config (config/default.json):

{
  "abstention": {
    "minMargin": 0.10,      // Lower from 0.15 (more aggressive)
    "minEV": 0.03,          // Lower from 0.05
    "deadZoneWidth": 0.08,  // Lower from 0.10
    "volatilityThreshold": 2.5  // Raise from 2.0 (tolerate more vol)
  }
}

Lowering abstention thresholds increases trade frequency but reduces win rate. Only adjust if you understand the risk/reward tradeoff.

Low confidence predictions (50-60%)

Symptom: Predictions always show 50-60% confidenceCause:

Insufficient price history
Low volatility (price flat)
Model features not detecting signal

Diagnostics:

Check data collection:

# Count ticks in current interval
tail -100 data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | grep "tick" | wc -l

Should see 50-100 ticks per 5-minute interval.

Check volatility: Low volatility = low confidence (model can’t distinguish UP/DOWN)

# Check recent volatility values
tail -50 data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | jq '.volatility.sigma'

Review momentum indicators:

tail -50 data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | jq '.momentum'

Solution:

If low data: Wait longer, check WebSocket
If low volatility: Normal - model won’t trade flat markets
If indicators broken: Check logs for NaN values, restart bot

Incorrect Predictions

Early 1m accuracy < 70%

Symptom: Daily report shows Early 1m accuracy below 70%Troubleshooting steps:

Check sample size

Need 50+ predictions for statistical significance.

jq 'length' data/history.json

Run daily report

pnpm report

Check:

Brier Score (should be <0.25)
Murphy Reliability (should be <0.05)
Confidence bands (high bands should be accurate)

Analyze misses

Look at “Fallos del Early 1m” section in report.

Are misses clustered in high volatility?
Are misses when price is near strike?
Are high-confidence predictions failing?

Check calibration

Enable Platt calibration:

{
  "calibration": {
    "enabled": true,
    "method": "platt"
  }
}

Restart bot and monitor for 50+ intervals.

Common causes:

Trending market: Model assumes mean reversion but market is trending
- Solution: Increase momentum weight in config
High volatility: Predictions less reliable in chaotic markets
- Solution: Model already abstains via anomalous_volatility - working as intended
Strike proximity: Hard to predict when price ≈ strike
- Solution: Increase dead_zone threshold to abstain near 50/50 calls

Data Issues

Missing History

Table shows no history rows

Symptom: Console table is empty or shows very few rowsCause:

data/history.json missing or corrupted
Bot just started (no history yet)
Permissions issue

Solution:

Check file exists:
```
ls -lh data/history.json
```

Verify JSON validity:

jq . data/history.json > /dev/null && echo "Valid" || echo "Invalid"

If corrupted, restore from backup:

# Bot creates backups in logs
cp data/logs/history-backup-*.json data/history.json

If missing, create empty array:
```
echo '[]' > data/history.json
```

Prevention: History is persisted after every interval close in src/tracker/history.js:23. If you see frequent corruption, check disk space:

df -h

Prediction fields show '--'

Symptom: Table columns show -- instead of predictionsPossible causes:

Column	Cause	Fix
Early 1m	Bot started <1min before close	Normal - prediction not captured yet
E.Ac	No Early 1m prediction	Wait for next interval
q	Polymarket data unavailable	Check [POLY] status, see “Connection Issues”
Bet	Abstaining	Check abstention reason in header
Pr 30s	Bot started <30s before close	Normal - wait for capture
F.Ac	Interval still ACTIVE	Normal - accuracy calculated on close

Log File Issues

No log files created

Symptom: data/logs/ directory emptyCause:

Logger not initialized
Permissions issue
Disk full

Solution:

Check directory permissions:

ls -ld data/logs/
# Should be drwxr-xr-x

Create directory:
```
mkdir -p data/logs
chmod 755 data/logs
```
Check disk space:
```
df -h .
```

Verify logger config: In config/default.json:

{
  "logging": {
    "enabled": true,
    "directory": "data/logs",
    "level": "info"
  }
}

Logger creates daily files: YYYY-MM-DD.log

Performance Issues

High CPU Usage

Bot using >50% CPU

Symptom: High CPU usage, fans spinningCause:

Tick logging creating too many writes
Console rendering in tight loop
Memory leak in WebSocket handler

Diagnostics:

# Check process stats
ps aux | grep node

# Profile with Node.js
node --prof src/index.js
# Run for 5 minutes, then Ctrl+C
node --prof-process isolate-*.log > profile.txt

Solutions:

Reduce console refresh rate: In src/ui/display.js, the render is called on every tick. Add throttling:
```
// Render max once per second
if (Date.now() - lastRender < 1000) return
```

Disable tick logging: In config/default.json:

{
  "logging": {
    "tickLogging": false
  }
}

Reduce history retention: Display shows last 15 rows only, but full history is loaded:

// In src/ui/display.js:186
const recentHistory = allHistory.slice(-15)  // Already optimized

Memory Leaks

Memory usage grows over time

Symptom: Bot memory usage increases steadily, eventually crashesCause:

WebSocket event listeners not cleaned up
History array growing unbounded
Tick data accumulating

Diagnostics:

# Monitor memory
watch -n 5 'ps aux | grep node | grep -v grep'

# Heap snapshot (requires --inspect)
node --inspect src/index.js
# Chrome DevTools > Memory > Take Heap Snapshot

Solutions:

Restart daily via cron:

# crontab -e
0 0 * * * pkill -f "node.*index.js" && cd /path/to/bot && pnpm start

Limit history size: In src/tracker/history.js, add rotation:

if (history.length > 1000) {
  history = history.slice(-500)  // Keep last 500
}

Check WebSocket cleanup: In src/feeds/chainlink.js, ensure:

ws.on('close', () => {
  ws.removeAllListeners()  // Clean up
})

Trading Simulation Issues

Bet Sizes Too Large

Kelly suggests 20%+ of bankroll

Symptom: Bet size exceeds 20% of bankrollCause:

Very high confidence prediction (95%+)
Large edge vs market
Kelly alpha set too high

Risk: Large bets increase variance - one wrong prediction = significant loss.Solution:

Lower Kelly alpha: In config/default.json:

{
  "risk": {
    "kelly": {
      "tiers": {
        "excellent": 0.15,  // Lower from 0.25
        "good": 0.10,
        "acceptable": 0.05,
        "poor": 0.02
      }
    }
  }
}

Add bet size cap: In src/risk/position-sizer.js:34, add:

const cappedBet = Math.min(kellySuggestion, bankroll * 0.10)  // Max 10%

Increase drawdown sensitivity:

{
  "risk": {
    "drawdown": {
      "levels": {
        "yellow": 0.05,  // Start caution at 5% (was 10%)
        "red": 0.10,
        "critical": 0.20
      }
    }
  }
}

Drawdown Not Recovering

Stuck in RED/CRITICAL level

Symptom: Drawdown stays in RED or CRITICAL, no trades executedCause:

String of losses pushed bankroll down
High-water mark too high
Not enough winning trades to recover

Understanding drawdown:

drawdown = (highWaterMark - currentBankroll) / highWaterMark

To exit RED (20%), bankroll must recover to within 20% of all-time high.Solutions:

Reset high-water mark (CAUTION):

// In src/risk/drawdown-tracker.js
// Only do this if starting fresh
this.highWaterMark = this.bankroll

Lower drawdown thresholds:

{
  "risk": {
    "drawdown": {
      "levels": {
        "red": 0.30,      // Was 0.20
        "critical": 0.40   // Was 0.30
      }
    }
  }
}

This increases risk - bot will keep trading deeper into losses.

Wait for recovery: Drawdown protection is working as intended. Bot needs winning streak to recover naturally.

Check recovery progress:

# Last 20 trades
tail -20 data/history.json | jq '.[] | select(.betSize > 0) | {index, betSize, result, earlyPredictionCorrect}'

Report Generation Issues

pnpm report returns 'No data'

Symptom: pnpm report outputs “No hay datos para generar reporte.”Cause:

No intervals closed today
data/history.json empty or missing
Date filter excluding all records

Solution:

Check history file:
```
jq 'length' data/history.json
```
Should show number of intervals.

Check date filtering:

# Today's records
jq "[.[] | select(.closedAt | startswith(\"$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)\"))]

| length” data/history.json

3. **Generate for specific date:**
```bash
node src/reporter/daily.js 2026-02-23

Generate for all data (no date filter):

# Edit src/reporter/daily.js:317
const date = null  // Instead of process.argv[2]
node src/reporter/daily.js

Report not appearing in Obsidian

Symptom: Report generated but not visible in Obsidian vaultCause:

Vault path misconfigured
Obsidian not synced
File permissions

Solution:

Verify vault path: In src/reporter/daily.js:9-10:

const VAULT_ROOT = '/Users/rperaza/Library/Mobile Documents/...'
const VAULT_DEST = 'joicodev/ideas/polymarket/reports'

Check path exists:

ls -la "$VAULT_ROOT/$VAULT_DEST/"

Check file was created:

ls -lh "$VAULT_ROOT/$VAULT_DEST/reporte-$(date +%Y-%m-%d).md"

Force Obsidian refresh:
- Open Obsidian
- Command Palette (Cmd+P)
- “Reload app without saving”
Check iCloud sync: Obsidian uses iCloud - sync can take 1-2 minutes.

Configuration Issues

Config changes not taking effect

Symptom: Modified config/default.json but bot behavior unchangedCause:

Bot not restarted
Config cache
Syntax error in JSON

Solution:

Validate JSON:

jq . config/default.json > /dev/null && echo "Valid" || echo "Invalid"

Check config loading:

# Bot loads config on startup
grep "Config loaded" data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log

Restart bot:
```
# Stop with Ctrl+C
pnpm start
```

Verify config in logs:

# Check what config was loaded
head -50 data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | jq '.config'

Emergency Procedures

Bot is making bad trades

Immediate actions:

Stop the bot

# Ctrl+C or:
pkill -f "node.*index.js"

Backup current state

cp data/history.json data/history-backup-$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S).json
cp config/default.json config/default-backup-$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S).json

Analyze recent performance

pnpm report

Check:

Early 1m accuracy
Recent misses
Drawdown level

Increase abstention thresholds

Make bot more conservative:

{
  "abstention": {
    "minMargin": 0.20,
    "minEV": 0.08
  }
}

Restart in monitor-only mode

Comment out trade execution code, run read-only to collect data without risk.

Getting Help

Check Logs

tail -100 data/logs/$(date +%Y-%m-%d).log | jq .

Generate Report

pnpm report

Inspect State

jq '.[-5:]' data/history.json

Test APIs

# Chainlink
wscat -c wss://ws-live-data.polymarket.com

# Vatic
curl -s https://api.vatic.trading/api/v1/targets/$(date +%s) | jq .

Common Error Messages

Error	Meaning	Solution
`WebSocket closed unexpectedly`	Chainlink feed disconnected	Auto-reconnects, check network
`Strike price not available`	Vatic API returned 404	Interval may not exist yet, wait 30s
`Insufficient data for prediction`	< 50 ticks collected	Wait longer, check WebSocket
`NaN detected in volatility`	Math error in calculation	Check for zero variance, restart
`Market data not available`	Polymarket CLOB down	Bot continues, no EV calcs
`ENOSPC: no space left on device`	Disk full	Clean up old logs, increase storage

Diagnostic Commands

ps aux | grep node
netstat -an | grep ESTABLISHED | grep polymarket

Next Steps

Reading Output

Understand the console display

Daily Reports

Deep dive into performance metrics

Configuration

Full config reference and tuning guide

API Reference

Internal API documentation

​Connection Issues

​WebSocket Disconnects

​Missing Strike Price

​Prediction Issues

​Constant Abstention

​Incorrect Predictions

​Data Issues

​Missing History

​Log File Issues

​Performance Issues

​High CPU Usage

​Memory Leaks

​Trading Simulation Issues

​Bet Sizes Too Large

​Drawdown Not Recovering

​Report Generation Issues

​Configuration Issues

​Emergency Procedures

​Getting Help

Check Logs

Generate Report

Inspect State

Test APIs

​Common Error Messages

​Diagnostic Commands

​Next Steps

Reading Output

Daily Reports

Configuration

API Reference

Connection Issues

WebSocket Disconnects

Missing Strike Price

Prediction Issues

Constant Abstention

Incorrect Predictions

Data Issues

Missing History

Log File Issues

Performance Issues

High CPU Usage

Memory Leaks

Trading Simulation Issues

Bet Sizes Too Large

Drawdown Not Recovering

Report Generation Issues

Configuration Issues

Emergency Procedures

Getting Help

Common Error Messages

Diagnostic Commands

Next Steps