# Polymarket Bot

## Docs

- [Data Model](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/api/data-model.md): Complete data structures and types used throughout the Polymarket Bot
- [Data Feeds](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/api/feeds.md): Real-time price streaming (ChainlinkFeed), strike price retrieval (Vatic), and market price discovery (Polymarket)
- [Interval Tracker & History](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/api/interval-tracker.md): IntervalTracker manages 5-minute interval lifecycle and records predictions. HistoryStore persists interval data to disk.
- [PredictionEngine](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/api/prediction-engine.md): Core prediction engine that combines Black-Scholes probability, EWMA volatility, momentum, and mean-reversion signals
- [Abstention System](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/concepts/abstention-system.md): The 7 conditions that prevent trading when the model has no statistical edge
- [Data Sources](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/concepts/data-sources.md): Chainlink WebSocket, Vatic API, Polymarket Gamma/CLOB integration details
- [How Predictions Work](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/concepts/how-predictions-work.md): Deep dive into Black-Scholes, EWMA volatility, momentum analysis, and logit-space probability combination
- [System Architecture](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/concepts/overview.md): High-level overview of the BTC prediction engine architecture and workflow
- [Risk Management](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/concepts/risk-management.md): Kelly criterion, Brier-tiered alpha, drawdown tracking, and cold-streak detection
- [Configuration Reference](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/configuration/config-reference.md): Complete reference for all configuration options in config/default.json
- [Environment Setup](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/configuration/environment-setup.md): Environment setup, data directories, logging configuration, and production deployment
- [Tuning Parameters](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/configuration/tuning-parameters.md): Guide to tuning EWMA lambda, logit weights, abstention thresholds, and risk parameters for optimal performance
- [History Store](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/data/history-store.md): Simple JSON persistence layer for interval records with atomic append and full history reload
- [Interval Tracking](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/data/interval-tracking.md): State machine that manages 5-minute interval lifecycles, captures predictions, and closes intervals with results
- [Logging](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/data/logging.md): Structured JSON logging system with daily rotation and separate tick data capture for high-frequency price streams
- [Metrics](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/data/metrics.md): Proper scoring rules (Brier, Log Loss), Murphy decomposition, runs test, and band analysis for prediction evaluation
- [Black-Scholes Binary Option](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/black-scholes.md): Binary call option probability calculation under geometric Brownian motion
- [Platt Calibration](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/calibration.md): Post-hoc probability recalibration using sigmoid scaling
- [Momentum & Mean Reversion](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/momentum.md): Rate of change and mean-reversion signal extraction from tick buffer
- [Prediction Engine Overview](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/overview.md): Architecture and design of the mathematical prediction engine
- [Prediction Engine API](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/predictor.md): Combined prediction engine with logit-space fusion and abstention logic
- [EWMA Volatility Estimator](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/engine/volatility.md): Exponentially weighted moving average volatility calculation from streaming ticks
- [Understanding Daily Reports](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/guides/daily-reports.md): Comprehensive guide to daily report metrics, statistical measures, and performance analysis
- [Reading Console Output](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/guides/reading-output.md): Understanding the real-time console display, header information, and prediction table
- [Troubleshooting](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/guides/troubleshooting.md): Common issues, error messages, and solutions for the Polymarket Bot
- [Introduction](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/index.md): Real-time BTC price prediction engine for Polymarket 5-minute binary markets
- [Installation](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/installation.md): Complete setup guide for the Polymarket BTC prediction bot
- [Quickstart](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/quickstart.md): Get the Polymarket bot running in minutes with real-time BTC price predictions
- [Drawdown Tracking](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/risk/drawdown-tracking.md): 4-level drawdown system with progressive risk reduction and cold-streak circuit breaker
- [Kelly Criterion](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/risk/kelly-criterion.md): Theory and implementation of the Kelly criterion for optimal bet sizing
- [Position Sizing](https://mintlify.wiki/joicodev/polymarket-bot/risk/position-sizing.md): Fractional Kelly criterion implementation with Brier-tiered alpha scaling